Gaels seek redemption in WCC clash with Broncos

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the West Coast Conference spectrum meet in Moraga, California tonight, as the Santa Clara Broncos have come to challenge the 16th-ranked Saint Mary's-CA Gaels.

Santa Clara has had a miserable season thus far, particularly in conference play as it has yet to taste victory against WCC opponents (0-11). Overall, the Broncos have lost twice as many games as they have won (8-16), and they are 0-9 on the road. The team is currently mired in a 12-game losing streak, its last win coming against Eastern Michigan in the opening round of the Cable Car Classic back on December 29.

As for Saint Mary's, it is an impressive 22-3 on the season, and the team had won its first 11 conference bouts before taking on fellow WCC front-runner Gonzaga on Thursday night. The Gaels suffered a 73-59 defeat in that contest, but they'll try to bounce back tonight as they prepare to take on the league's worst team in front of a home crowd that has seen them win each and every time they've stepped foot on the McKeon Pavilion hardwood this season (15-0).

The two teams met on January 21, with Saint Mary's winning at Santa Clara in a 93-77 final.

Poor defense has led to Santa Clara's dreadful record this season, as the team is giving up more than 75 ppg, with foes shooting better than 45 percent from the field and 37 percent from beyond the arc. The Broncos are netting right around 70 ppg themselves, but they're hitting just 41.1 percent of their total shots and they're routinely beaten on the glass. The team's scoring chart shows three double-digit scorers in Kevin Foster, Evan Roquemore and Niyi Harrison, although Foster has been suspended indefinitely, leaving the others to pick up the slack. Raymond Cowells III and Denzel Johnson did just that in the most recent outing against San Franciso, netting 21 and 20 points, respectively, but despite shooting 51.9 percent from the floor and nailing 14- of-23 three-point attempts, the Broncos dropped an 85-69 decision to the Dons. A 15-1 deficit in points from the foul line proved costly, as did a whopping 21 turnovers. Roquemore chipped in 14 points for Santa Clara in defeat.

Simply put, Saint Mary's failed to find its groove in the recent showdown with Gonzaga, as the Gaels shot just 38.2 percent from the field, knocked down a mere 5-of-21 three-point tries and lost the battle on the boards by a 40-26 margin. Matthew Dellavedova led SMC with 20 points, but help came only in the form of 11 points from Jorden Page and 10 from Brad Waldow. About the only bright spot for the Gaels was the fact that they committed a low eight turnovers, which is nearly four less than the team is guilty of on average this year. Dellavedova (15.7 ppg, 6.3 apg) is one of three players currently averaging double digits in the scoring column for Saint Mary's, but the team's most productive all-around player is Rob Jones, who nets 14.6 ppg while pulling down 10.6 rpg. As a collective unit, the Gaels are lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 76.3 ppg behind typical shooting efforts of 47.7 percent overall and 36.1 percent from three-point land. Defensively, the team permits just 61.4 ppg, and it owns favorable margins in both rebounding (+7.4) and turnovers (+1.0).

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

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Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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